Exit polls signal change in Bengal, Keralam; indicate comeback in Assam, Tamil Nadu and Puducherry

New Delhi, April 29: According to post-poll surveys, or exit polls, the BJP appears close to forming the government in West Bengal this time. In Keralam, the Congress-led UDF alliance may return to power after 10 years, while in Tamil Nadu, the ruling DMK remains a likely candidate. In Assam, the BJP appears clearly poised to return to power.

With the completion of the second phase of voting in West Bengal, the voting process for the ongoing assembly elections in five states is almost complete. Following the final phase of voting, exit polls from various survey agencies and channels have begun to come in. Based on the data received at the time of writing, a change in the party’s position appears highly likely in West Bengal and Kerala. The ruling coalition may return in the remaining three states.

West Bengal: Trinamool 130–149 seats, BJP 134–155 seats, Others 2–6 seats

Surveys indicate that West Bengal is witnessing the highest voter turnout ever, going against the ruling party. The state recently underwent the SIR process, which also led to a standoff between the Trinamool and the Election Commission. The Trinamool is in power here, and the BJP is in opposition. The BJP was limited to 77 seats last time. The state has 294 assembly seats, and a majority requires 148 seats.

In West Bengal, Matriz predicts Trinamool 125–140, BJP 146–161, and Others 6–10. P-Mark predicts Trinamool 118–138, BJP 150–175, and Others 2–6. People’s Pulse predicts Trinamool 177–187, BJP 95–110, Left 0–1, Congress 1–3, and Others 1–2. Poll Diary gives Trinamool 99–127, BJP 142–171, Left 2–3, Congress 3–5, Others 0–1. JVC gives Trinamool 131–152, BJP 138–159, Congress 0–2.

Kerala: Average: LDF 55–64 seats, UDF 73–82 seats, NDA 2–5 seats, and Others 0–2.

In Kerala, the Congress-led UDF is seen making a comeback after 10 years, while the only Left-led government (LDF) is seen losing power. 71 seats are required to win in the 140-seat assembly.

In Kerala, according to Axis My India, the LDF may get 49–62, the UDF 78–90, and the NDA 0–3. Matriz gives the LDF 60–65, the UDF 70–75, the NDA 3–5, and Others 2–4 seats. People’s Pulse predicts LDF 55–65, UDF 75–85, NDA 0–3 seats. P-Mark predicts LDF 60–65, UDF 70–75, NDA 3–5 seats. JVC predicts LDF 52–61, UDF 72–84, NDA 3–7, others 0.

Tamil Nadu: DMK 108–125 seats, AIADMK 73–89, TVK 30–39 seats, others 1–4 seats

The ruling DMK appears to be making a comeback in Tamil Nadu. The main contest here is between the regional parties DMK and AIADMK. This time, actor Vijay’s party TVK is also projected to win some seats. Congress is contesting the elections under the leadership of DMK and BJP AIADMK. To win 118 seats out of the 234 seats in the state, 118 seats are required.

Axis My India has predicted DMK 92–110, AIADMK 22–32, TVK 98–120 in Tamil Nadu. Matriz has predicted DMK 122–132, AIADMK 87–100, TVK 10–12, and others 0–6. P-Mark has given DMK 125–145, AIADMK 65–85, TVK 16–26, and others 1–6. People’s Pulse has given DMK 125–145 seats, AIADMK 65–80, TVK 18–24, and others 2–6 seats. JVC has predicted DMK 75–95, AIADMK 128–147, and TVK 8–15.

Assam: BJP 83–94 seats, Congress 23–32 seats, AIUDF 2–5 seats, and others 1–4 seats.

The Bharatiya Janata Party and the NDA alliance led by it are once again seen returning with a clear majority in Assam, the largest state in the Northeast. No survey has predicted a change of power. The majority mark is 64 out of the 126 seats in the state.

Axis My India has given BJP 88–100 seats, Congress 24–36, and others 0–3 seats in Assam. Matriz has given BJP 85–95 seats, Congress 25–32, and others 6–12. According to People’s Pulse, BJP may win 68–72 seats, Congress 22–26, AIUDF 3–5 seats. P-Mark has given BJP 82–94 seats, Congress 30–40, and others 1–5 seats. Poll Diary has predicted BJP 86–101 seats, Congress 15–26, AIUDF 2–5, and others 0–2. JVC has predicted BJP 88–101 seats, Congress 23–33, and AIUDF 2–5 seats.

Puducherry: AINRC-BJP 16–19 seats, DMK-Congress 6–8 seats, TVK 1–3 seats, and others 2–7.

The Union Territory of Puducherry currently has a government led by the regional party NR Congress. The BJP is its ally. The opposition is the DMK and its ally, Congress. The NDA is expected to return to power in the state. A majority in the 30-seat assembly requires 16 seats.

People’s Pulse gives the AINRC-BJP 15–18 seats, and the DMK-Congress 6–8 seats. Axis My India estimates the AINRC-BJP could win 16–20 seats, the DMK-Congress 6–8, the TVK 2–4, and others 1–3.